We're all doomed, doomed I tell you...

Goodness me it’s been a while

I know I always write that, but there you go. I think I wrote at Christmas that it was about time for a proper post so getting it done at Easter isn’t too bad, is it? Anyway I’m a busy person, cut me some slack.

The return of Silent Shinzo

Yes, I know it’s been a while since Yoshihiko Noda got dumped for trying to do the right thing, since September 2012 to be precise, that’s when the LDP clawed their way back to power, so how has the new boy, Silent Shinzo Abe, been getting on?

Well he’s invented a new word, or rather he’s had one invented for him, the so-called Abenomics, a cunning and inventive blend of Abe and economics. So what is it? Well, as far as I can tell it’s the same as the quantitative easing that worked so effectively at kick starting the economy in the US and Europe. The idea, as far as I can see, is that the central bank prints lots of extra yen and uses this to buy lots of government bonds, I think they buy the bonds from Japanese banks who up until now had been propping up the government by buying these bonds thereby proving the government with cash (I could well be wrong about that, I’m not an economist; if I am wrong, what do you expect, go read Bloomberg).

The effect, hopefully, of this central bank buying spree is that it firstly provides liquidity to the banks who can then start using the money to give loans (which let’s face it is hopeful as no one wants a loan when they don’t want to be more in debt (except governments, of course, but they have different rules known as ‘fuck you small people, we do what we want’ rules)). The second supposed effect is to kickstart an infrastructure construction boom which, by the miracle of trickle-down economics, puts money into normal people’s pockets thereby restarting the economy as people buy stuff, inflation increases a bit, interest rates rise and everything is right with the world. This second point may sound familiar and it is to anyone who has been to anywhere in ‘small town countryside’ japan where there are enormous highways to nowhere and cavernous 1500-seater concert halls in a town of 200 people (and another up the road) – yes, it’s basically what’s been going on for the last 20 years.

There are other tenets to Abenomics, like devaluing the currency – this was important and something I agree with as for the last few years, even though the Japanese economy (we’re talking macro scale here) has been structurally fucked (no growth, stag/deflation, aging population time bomb etc)  it seems the people who run these things decided Japan was a safe haven, and compared to Europe and the US for a while I suppose it was, so the yen was at stratospherically high levels for far too long and some adjustment needed to be made. What’s interesting here is that for the 2-3 years that the yen was strong there was little mention from the currencies that benefitted, dollar, euro and yuan, whilst Japan was left to suffer in silence. As soon as Japan started to try to devalue the yen all these currencies that had benefitted suddenly started predicting the end of the economic world because if Japan aggressively devalued its currency then they would have to as well (from a position of being devalued, interesting…). So suddenly Japan is screwed if it does and [continues to be] fucked if it doesn’t – good position to be in.

In a way I feel sorry for Abe, inasmuch as I can feel sorry for any politician. Japan has been in a bad place for a couple of decades now and something needed to be done, but as with a lot of these things it looks like it’s impossible to do what really needs to be done (e.g. separate big business from the government/ministry of finance; stop the white collar closed shop corruption; wipe out the bank’s toxic debt; make business stand on their own two feet; end protectionism; transpose the ultra-efficient Japanese manufacturing processes into company structures and the workforce (i.e. promote efficiency in all areas of the company); introduce meritocracy; value people; value ideas; make decisions; act. Goodness me, got a little carried away there, maybe I should be the next PM or Chancellor…). Anyway all that needs to be done but can’t be done solely by the government, so the government has to try and find ways to encourage business to buy into this, which means getting the currency down, liquidity into the market and more people into the shops to buy stuff (and most importantly get people having babies as old people don’t buy new TVs/cars/houses very often but young people do – fat fucking chance of this, of course and as discussed elsewhere, but you can’t say it enough times).

Er, lost my thread there with that ‘what is to be done’ mini-rantlet. So…something needed to be done and Abe can only do so much. He can’t really sit on his hands and not say anything, like he did last time he was PM back in 2006/7 as the world has changed for the worse since then. So he has to try something new, though a large part of the ‘new’ seems to be to do what has been done before but on a much bigger scale. At least Abe does have the bonus, if it could be called that, of having to rebuild Tohoku after the 2011 earthquake – that will take a lot of money and time and will, eventually, lead to a lot of people buying a lot of new stuff and maybe having babies, but whether it will be enough…

Reaction to his policies has been unsurprisingly mixed. The markets have loved it and the Nikkei, up another 100 points today, is now moving upwards at a rate of knots. Most economic commentators have looked on with a mixture of awe and morbid fascination, expecting the economy to either implode or explode in the not too distant future, pointing out that for this to work interest rates and especially economic growth rates will have to be impossibly high whilst keeping inflation manageably low all to ensure that debt servicing doesn’t exceed the country’s GDP (and seeing as the debt already exceeds GDP by a considerable margin and could head towards 245% this is a real worry). However given the right circumstances, such as continued growth and construction/rebuilding work that does actually benefit people, put money in their pockets and encourage them to spend, there is a feeling of optimism in certain quarters (the Economist http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21569435-can-fiscal-and-monetary-splurge-reboot-japans-recessionary-economy-keynes and Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz  http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/08/japan-shinzo-abe-yen-economics to name but 2 big names).

So I guess we’ll have to wait and see, I’m in the optimistic camp myself, having lived here for the best part of 17 years in the midst of depression (economic not personal) and still the country seems to get through, people spend, new buildings are built and the sun still rises. It would be better if he took on board my suggestions above, I wouldn’t charge too much for him to use, and not just because I have probably nicked them off lots of other people, but I know it’s unlikely to happen as it would mean too much of a change in the fundamental psyche of Japan.  However it will all be for nothing because…

Krazy Kim Junior

Just what the fuck is going on over in Krazy Kim Junior’s People Mart? No, I don’t know either but I do with they’d sort it out and stop threatening to drop a large piece of metal on my head from a great height (though to be fair to Krazy Kim it seems to the South Koreans, naturally, and the Americans that have his dander up at the moment and in a show of enormous self-restraint the Japanese generally, and Silent Shinzo especially, have decided to forego the normal inflammatory ‘can we have any of our citizens you may still be holding captive back now please, and their children’ modus operandi that holds sway in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs).

One thing you have to wonder about – there is no way, as far as I know, that your average North Korean person can see any foreign news whilst they are in KKJPM, so whilst we understand that Junior has to be seen to rattle the sabre by his people in order to a) wring concessions from the US; b) get the US, China, Japan and who knows, Malawi to the negotiating table; and c) get some food aid. What I don’t understand is, when his people aren’t going to be watching BBC World or CNN why does he actually have to go through the rigmarole of the sabre rattling in the first place? He could just ask for some food and then, when it arrives, he goes on TV and is interviewed by that vicious newsreader woman and all he has to say is “I jolly well rattled my sabre and look, a bally load of rice/mung beans/marmite has been delivered by the quaking imperialist capitalist mongrels”. Or something similar – it’s not like there will be rioting in the streets with workers holding up copies of the Guardian declaim Junior as a liar, more likely they’ll be waving flags and smiling (and trying to ignore guns pointing at them from behind).

Anyway come on Junior, dad was a nutjob but I don’t really remember him going this far before…

My word is my...

When the DPJ took power for the first time a couple of years ago (not counting the brief flirtation with office they had 1980s) when the Hat got elected they produced a manifesto. Like most political manifestos it was long on hot air and short on details of any concrete policies, but you expect that from politicos. I suspect it was full of things like ‘we’ll try not to rock the boat too much or fuck things up royally’ and ‘we promise to think very carefully about certain things, related to but not necessarily including things we can do anything about’ and, of course, ‘we will maintain the rule of bureaucrats so that we do the talking and they, the grey, unelected mass, do the running’. You know, the usual sort of thing.

What they did not write in their manifesto was ‘in the aftermath of a catastrophic earthquake and subsequent even-more-lethal tsunami we will raise consumption tax to facilitate the rebuilding of the Tohoku region (as we won’t have enough money to do it as we’re already in hock to ourselves to a rather overstretched degree (but at least we’re not in hock to the Chinese, oil-rich Arabs or the New World Order))’. It was a tad remiss of them to leave out this important clause, indeed 9 DPJ MPs thought so and are now 9 former DPJ MPs, or, more accurately, the 9 founding members of a new political party called Kizuna (named, possibly, after a song by, variously, Aya Matsuura, Aya Ueto, Orange Range or Ayane; or maybe after an action rpg for the Wii – only the 9 will know). Kizuna also means ‘bond’ in Japanese, though I’m not sure if that’s bond as in ‘ties like our ties to the DPJ aren't very strong’ or bond as in ‘glue’ or maybe bond as in ‘the name’s Bond…’; again maybe the 9 know and they’re not saying (more likely I haven’t found out, so I’m going with the Ian Fleming option).

Anyway, it got me thinking about these 9, are they:

a) Unaware of how big the Japan’s debt currently is?
b) Woefully ignorant of what faces Japan and especially Tohoku in the coming years in terms of rebuilding, not to mention the social welfare and pension time bomb?
c) Wankers?
d) All of the above?

(by the way ‘c’ is a trick option, they’re politicians so of course they’re wankers).

Their claim is that the DPJ are betraying their pre-election promises, and their manifesto no doubt, as nowhere did it say that the party was going to raise consumption tax. Well ok, they are right, though I think the raising of this tax, from its current 5% has been on the cards for ages, if for no other reason than Japan has to pay for its current and future welfare/pension liabilities somehow, but there you go. But the real impetus has come from the quake and the need to rebuild, which Japan absolutely must do, but because the manifesto didn’t mention it these 9 have said they refuse to be party to a party that will do this. Quite how they expect the government to fund the rebuild is anyone’s guess, though as far as I can tell they haven’t actually said anything except ‘not by raising consumption tax’.

So I don’t really get what they want. What I know Japan doesn’t want, or need, is another political party, especially one of only 9 MPs. Also, what about the people that voted these tossers into power? Akira Uchiyama was voted in by the people of Chiba as an MP for the DPJ but has now become an MP for Kizuna, shouldn’t he be going back to the people of Chiba and asking them if they would still like him to be their MP, now that he has formed his own party? Same for the rest of them – but of course no chance of that until the next election, at which point I hope they boot him out.

Now I personally don’t want my tax to increase, but I can see the need for it. And it’s not like it’s going to happen overnight, it will go up from 5% to 8% in April 2014 and then 10% in October 2015 – so still some way off the 17.5% you get in the UK and will still be pretty low as the total tax take is only 17% of GDP, the lowest in the OECD according to the Economist (interesting article here).

Anyway I think these 9 are just your average grandstanding politicos, looking to get some easy short-term advantage whilst the country goes to the long-term dogs (notwithstanding the article above). OK, something like 58% of respondents in a recent survey said they didn’t want their tax to increase, so maybe these guys can see some popular support, but I wonder how the question was asked – if the question was ‘do you want to pay more tax?’ then I expect the answer is mostly ‘no’; if the question is ‘to fund the reconstruction of Tohoku would you agree to a modest increase in consumption tax, otherwise we can’t pay for it?’ then I think most would answer yes.

This is why I have a sneaking respect for current PM Noda – I think he can see the writing on the wall, the elephant in the room and that the king is not wearing any clothes (though the emperor is, I have from a trusted imperial source, fully attired). He knows that 1) they need to raise revenue 2) consumption tax is the way to do it 3) it’s not going to be popular and 4) his PM-ship is a one-way ticket to the dole queue but, as the saying goes, it’s a dirty job but someone’s got to do it. He has already said that he will not call an election on this matter but will force it through, a fait accompli if you will, which is exactly what needs to be done. I think he can see this and has decided that he’ll do it for the good of Japan before disappearing off to retire by the sea.

If he does, respect to him.

In other news:

So in many ways I guess I had a pretty successful 2011.

I didn’t die in either the most catastrophic earthquake to hit Japan in 16 years or the subsequent and even more lethal tsunami. Admittedly I wasn’t anywhere near Tohoku at the time, but there you go, good planning.

I have a great family who were all general healthy and well through the year.

I still have a job that I enjoy in a school that seems to holding its shit together in this increasingly turbulent economic epoch.

No one I know has got radiation poisoning from Fukushima (so far).

I ran a half-marathon and not only finished but finished in the top 35%

So all things considered it wasn’t too bad, then again, roll on 2012…

And finally...

In the Annual Intercontinental Bowdidge Backgammon Bonanza I'm very glad to report that Japan triumphed 25-18 in what was once again a brilliant display of backgammon skill. Bad luck and well played to the losing finalist.

Noda - the first few weeks...

So the new boy wonder is in the hot-seat and what has he come up with to save Japan from fiscal, environmental and demographic catastrophe…?

Well, fuck all so far, it seems. The new kid has been keeping his head down and grafting, I know this because the media types have been bemoaning the fact the kid keeps his head down and doesn’t do interviews or press conferences. The old boys used to have at least 1 press conference a day, sometimes 2, with all that pressing going on you would think they didn’t have much time to do anything, and you’d be right (expect back-stabbing, mud-slinging and, in the case of (The Man Who) Kan, standing stock still in panic induced paralysis at the shit in front of him). But Noda has said “No, da won’t be many press conferences from now on” (apologies for the forced pun there), and those that he will do will be at ad hoc in locations the press will be told about with 2 minute’s notice (cue Keystone Cops-style charging about Kasumigaseki by the press corps whilst Noda chuckles to himself in Roppongi Hills/a rice field/Washington DC etc.)

But like most recent Japanese PMs, I can’t really think of much he’s done. I suppose he has overseen the indictment of the crook that is Ichiro Ozawa, who is still protecting his innocence, deriding the legality of the court and accusing the prosecutors of fraud, thereby acting like the supercilious, arrogant tosspot that he is; I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if he had shouted ‘don’t you know who I am!?’ several times already.

Sorry, back to Noda – er… There’s been a bit of talk about the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), a sort of free trade agreement with the US, but that will be wrapped up in the Futenma base shenanigans that are *still* going on. Then there are the proposed tax hikes, which will put my tax up in the not too distant future through a combination of increased income and sales taxes (yes, I can see they are needed but no, I don’t want them if all they will do is go towards more a) useless, anti-competition hand-outs for rice farmers/fishermen (for example) to keep them voting the right way b) ridiculous pork-barrel construction projects (there are enough real construction projects needed in Tohoku) c) bureaucrats d) semi-public institutions still bankrolled by govt. through my tax (JAL, Japan Tobacco et al) e) anything else that promotes waste and that I don’t agree with. Jesus, I sound like a Republican!).

I’m sure there is other stuff he’s done, but I can’t remember much about it. I’m sure he is doing great things to start the rebuild of northern Japan which will be, in the main, unsung, so maybe he needs to start blowing his trumpet a bit more.

Radiation news

The thing about having a nuclear power station going into meltdown 250kms away is that it makes everyone really paranoid about radiation. The first accusation is that the govt. and TEPCO aren’t telling anyone anywhere near enough about what’s going on at the plant. This was undoubtedly true at the time and though I suspect the flow of information is now much better, after the general panic has dissipated, I’m sure there is more they are not (or maybe not able) to tell us yet.

The second accusation is only possible after the general panic has dissipated and people can get back to living their normal lives, this is the paranoia that radiation is everywhere and the government aren’t telling us about it. The idea is that large amounts of radiation fell on Tokyo in very specific areas, creating radiation hotspots that will, for example, give your child incurable radiation sickness and/or cancer the second he/she goes near the aforementioned hotspot. There is no way the govt. can counter this unless it takes radiation readings from every street corner in Tokyo every 5 minutes for the next 10 years, and even then certain people, like some parents at the school I work at, will not believe the readings are real.

What makes matters worse are completely unrelated, random events that ratchet up the panic. For example a bunch of ‘concerned residents’ got hold of a radiation meter (another really, really bad idea as these are sensitive instruments with which it’s easy to pick up false readings unless you know what you’re doing) and started measuring bits of Setagaya-ku in west Tokyo. Somehow they managed to get an accurate reading and found a really quite large spike in radiation in one spot on a road outside a slightly rundown house. Cue local hysteria so the real boys were called in and, interestingly, found the same readings. Cue national hysteria and calls for the government to resign en masse for lying to the public (actually I made that bit up, but I’m pretty sure someone was saying it). Anyway, what the big boys found was that the radiation was coming from the house and, after getting permission to go in, found several bottles containing radium 226 (the stuff they use as luminous paint for watches) under the floor of the house. The woman who owned the house but no longer lived there said her (now dead husband, died if radiation poisoning…?) might have used the stuff but she really had no idea. So in the end it was all completely unrelated to Fukushima, but the paranoia goes on. Also, the level of radiation just above the bottles was 600 micro Sv/h, about the amount you would get from a stomach x-ray; so not exactly lethal though you wouldn’t want to stand there for too long, so outside the house on the street the level was around 3 micro Sv/h, so no one was going to get anything nasty just walking by the house every day, not that you’d think that listening to some of the comments that came out.

The Rugby World Cup

It’s almost over and I haven’t written anything about it. So, some musings…

- England were pretty rubbish on the field (looking good against Romania and Georgia does not count)

- Off the field England were not saints, but a large section of the media did seem to have it in for them from the moment they arrived in NZ (Mick Cleary and Mark Reason in the Telegraph spring to mind)

- I feel sorry for Wales but Sam Warburton should not have made that tackle as he did, whilst James Hook and Stephen Jones should have done better than 1 from 6

- I feel slightly sorry for South Africa, but they should have been a lot more savvy in realising that Bryce Lawrence had given carte blanche at the breakdown for anyone to do anything

- Japan played well, very well, at times but lacked composure when it really mattered

- No one put 100 points on any of the “minnows” – this was a great improvement and will only get better the more opportunities they are given to play the ‘big’ nations

- I now want France to win on Sunday, just because everyone is writing them off and saying they are the worst team ever to grace the final. Allez les Bleus!

- Stop blaming the refs and start looking at you team’s shortcomings

- Roll on 2019 when it all comes to Japan


And Dan Wheldon, R.I.P.

Lastly some pictures of cars from La Fest Mille Miglia in Tokyo a couple of weeks ago

La Festa 2011, a set on Flickr.

Who was that Man...?

So The Man Who Kan is officially now the Man Who Couldn't. As I said before, he was dealt a shitty hand but seismic catastrophes are in the job description for a Japanese PM and I'm afraid to say that he didn't handle it particularly well. Yes, politics is riven by factions, especially within his own party, but at some point he had to stop, draw a line in the sand (after clearing away the wreckage and checking for radiation), grow a pair and, firstly, tell Ozawa to f*ck off and expel him from the party (and deal with the crook later) and then take charge of the country post-quake, show a bit of leadership, be strong, fight and all that. Sorry, but on both counts: FAIL.

So he finally did the decent thing, after the 3rd emergency budget was passed (or whichever one it was) and fell on his sword. After a bit of ministerial tooing and froing, the suits of the DPJ elected another of their own, Yoshihiko Noda, as the new #1. Of the candidates he was one of few who I didn't really want to get it, mostly as he looks like a toad (imagine a flesh-coloured Baron Silas von Greenback and you'll see what I mean), and he sounds a bit like one as well - and kudos to him if he ever starts burping really loudly in a cabinet meeting in a vain attempt to attract Renho for a ministerial debrief...

So Noda has also been dealt a pretty shitty hand by the fates, but at least he has the excuse that he saw it coming. Of course the main problem is the economy - at the moment government debt is running at about double the annual turnover of Japan Inc, meaning that we are well mired in the deepest of deep shit. That said, unlike the mountainous debt of Europe and the US, most of the people the J-govt are indebted to are the people of Japan, as pretty much all the IOUs are written to Japanese banks backed up by the savings of millions of households across the land. This is a good thing, and the only reason Japan Inc hasn't gone bust for the last 20 years, as the people of Japan are very unlikely to stop saving, take the cash from the bank and blow it all in Vegas (or, in the case of US/European debt, the Chinese suddenly saying, "hey, you know all those IOU's? Reckon we'll cash them in now...").

But with a shrinking popuation and no mass immigration any time soon, the tax base will decrease and govt income fall even before the rebuilding of Tohoku gets underway. So sales/consumption tax will probably have to go up, no defintely have to go up, from its current 5% - I can see that at 10% in the next few years and probably 15% in a decade. It's going to hurt but it's got to be done. The Tohoku clean up is, naturally, another bit blot on the landscape (quite literally) - of course things have begun and lots of work already done, I think pretty much all of the displaced people now have temporary housing, as opposed to living in gymnasiums and other evacuation centres - that's pretty damned good going, considering how many people lost their houses. But rebuilding lives, towns, communities, jobs and all the other myriad of things that go into a place to live, that's going to take some work.

And then there is Fukushima. The nuclear plant is still not safe, though the chances of it blowing up and spewing radioactive crap all over Japan have now, it appears, receded. Interesting that everyone is now happy to use the word 'meltdown' to describe 2 or 3 of the reactors - it seems that the partial meltdowns happened within days of the disaster, certainly when we were sitting at home in Tokyo wondering whether we should get the hell outta Dodge. If anyone had mentioned the 'M' word at that time we would have been on a plane without pausing for thought, as would about 12 million people around me. So in a way it is hardly surprising that no one used that word, panic would have ensued, but now the attitude is more 'we I lived through it and I'm not dead yet, so the cores melted, big deal, there's no mushroom cloud over Tokyo...'. Probably way too blase, that, but there you go.

Anyway, good luck with all that, Noda-san.